CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SAGGING

2014/10/9

From：Macau Business

The consumer confidence index in the third quarter reached the lowest it’s been this year. Residents’ faith in purchasing property keeps weakening, while confidence in the SAR’s overall economy continues to increase

Consumer confidence is at an all-time low since the beginning of the year. In the third quarter of the year, consumer confidence was 85.1 out of 200 points, according to the latest Consumer Confidence Index conducted by the Macau University of Science and Technology (MUST).
Index scores below 100 suggest a lack of confidence while scores above 100 imply a degree of positive outlook. The survey results from the third quarter of 2014 showed that the overall confidence index declined slightly. Half of the six sub-indices decreased, while half increased compared to the second quarter.
The ‘local economy’ sub-index regidtered 108.82, slightly up 0.51% compared to the second quarter, indicating that Macau consumers remain optimistic about the local economy’s overall performance.
The ‘employment’ sub-index was still the highest (124.20) among the six sub-indices in the third quarter of 2014, down 1.73 percent from the second quarter and suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook by Macau consumers regarding their employment prospects in the labour markets.
The ‘consumer prices’ sub-index was 59.59, up 1.34 percent compared to the second quarter of 2014 and implying a noticeable drop in Macao consumer inflation expectations.
The ‘living standards’ sub-index was 93.34, down 1.67 percent from the second quarter of 2014 and indicating that Macao residents’ living pressures due to inflation were still of concern.
The ‘housing purchase’ sub-index remained the lowest (38.34) among the six sub-indices in the third quarter of 2014, down 2.64 percent compared to the second quarter and suggesting a further negative sentiment among potential residential homebuyers.
The ‘stock investment’ sub-index stood at 85.76, up 2.3 percent from the second quarter of 2014, reflecting a significantly recovered willingness by local consumers to invest in the volatile stock market.
The survey was conducted over a week from 26 September. The survey interviewed 1,015 Macau residents aged above 18 via telephone calls. The Institute for Sustainable Development of MUST has released the index every quarter since 2009.

Mainlanders more confident

Meanwhile, in the neighboring SAR, the consumer confidence index recorded a 4.5 percent drop, according to a survey conducted by the City University of Hong Kong. While in four subsections, namely general local economy, commodity price, purchasing property and investing in stock scored lower than 100, employment scored 99.5 and living quality scored 105.4 in the third quarter of this year.
According to Xinhua News Agency, the survey also compared the index before and after the Occupy Central movement. The result indicates that following the political turmoil the index slumped 16.3 percent in terms of consumers’ confidence in the general economy, whilst confidence in purchasing property increased 17.8 percent.
In Taiwan, the overall index dropped 0.7 percent but shows a positive perspective in terms of investing in the stock market whilst price levels and the general economy remain the top concerns.
In this cross-strait-four-regions survey, only mainland China scored an increase in confidence in the third quarter, some 5.2 percent up compared to the previous quarter, and 7 percent up year-on-year. It’s also the highest level since 2010.

Copyright@Macau Business Daily